Given the amount of satellite intelligence, commint, common knowledge, etc. the US military must know exactly where the Somali pirates are based. Even the Cpt. Phillips who was rescued earlier indicated that the US Navy knew the strenght of the pirates, where they were going, etc. What are they waiting for? Its not like the Somali military is in a position to prevent any US airstrikes. I don't see why the US will not launch an airstrike with PGM, take out their personnel and bases, and boats, than helo in MArines to finish the job off. In and out in 24 hours or less. They may not be able take them all out, but they will certainly hurt them for a while, and think twice about piracy.

Launching airstrikes produces collateral damage, which looks bad on TV. Putting boots on the ground may lead to casualties, which looks worse on TV. Either is expensive and risky. Don't forget "Blackhawk Down", where the Somalis had better anti-air capability than expected and failure to plan for the worst led to near disaster. Nothing military is ever that easy.

I also would not be so sure that locating the pirates is that easy. CTF 151 cannot even stop the pirate boats at sea. How can they find dispersed pirates in the chaos on land? The same issues as in COIN present themselves. How do you seperate pirates or insurgents from innocent but armed seamen? Until they attack, pirates with guns can claim to be innocent fishrmen protecting themselves from the terrible pirate problem in the area that claimed his brother last week, bless his soul, etc. How do you separate the guilty from the innocent until it is too late?

Even if such an operation was successful, in terms of killing pirates & their paymasters, & destroying their boats, it would also kill as many hostages as 100 years of piracy at current rates, & probably cost as much. To me, it seems like cutting off ones head to cure toothache.

The other part of the problem is that most of the pirates at sea are just "grunts" - easily replaceable from the hordes of poor schmucks in the Horn of Africa. The real operators don't go to sea - they sit in villas and have Swiss bank accounts. THOSE are the pirates that the civilized world needs to address.

If there is one thing Somalia doesn't have a shortage of it is young men with lots of guns and no hope for a better future.

The only solution is to make Somalia semi-viable as a state (Or really three states) and we all remember how well that went last time with over a hundred peacekeepers and aid workers dead, multiple vehicle losses plus operational costs for nothing...

There is no easy solution to this in the longer term that doesn't involve fixing somalia as a whole.

The only interim solution is greater naval patrols and enforcment. Some kind of exclusion lanes would be has been suggested, but you need to be able to enforce them all the way out to the deep indian ocean (I don't think people realize just how big an AO these guys are operating, and how far from Somalia.

The end result will probably involve some pay-off by gulf arab sheiks in some way 'mediating' though...

BTW, any chance we can cut down the number of Somali Pirate threads? There is about two in every forum bar the armour board. (AmphibiGav!ns to stop piracy?)

What TV? Has there been any TV crews filming in these pirate camps? I understand they are pretty isolated and inaccesible. This is not a Blackhawk Down situation. These guys are not in an urban build up area. I really doubt if they have any AA capability. Do u seriously think the US are not tracking them via satellite? Every ship that has been hijacked has to be sailed to their "hideout". Every little pirate speedboat that goes out and tries to intercept these merchant ships is under surveillance via satellite, and probably UAV. The only plausible reason for the US or sme other allies not striking is that the hostages are intemingled with them. Do u think pirates are hiding among fishermen, and other civilians that will sell their location and strenght to any foreigners for cash? Or risk being infliltrated by allied forces pretending to be fishermen? Or do you think they will keep to themselves and threaten anyone who comes near? If civilians are sheltering them and aiding and abetting them, than tough. They better be ready to be collateral damage.

AFAIK US surveillance satellites aren't geostationary. If they were, they'd be in too high an orbit. Therefore, unless I'm mistaken, they can't track targets for a significant length of time, if at all.

There is a good chance that these pirates are fishermen, but they probably fit the category of unlawful combatants better than any other group that I have heard of. They belong to gangs, fairly large criminal organisations, but by and large they are like the standover men, loan sharks, drug pushers and other sundry criminal element anywhere in the world. The US authorities cannot win the war on crime in their own cities they have little chance of winning on the open sea, except if they declare a certain area a 'no go zone - say a strip of ocean 50 k out from the coast, 100k wide and between the shipping lanes and the coast, and let it be known that ANYONE who strays into that area without authorisation is liable to attack.

And that ain't gonna happen.

Of course what will happen is the pirates could start taking hostages from Somalia along on raids with them, so any attack on a pirate vessel will also kill 'civilians',

The media goes where the news is. If the US launches strikes, the TV crews will be there.

I do seriously think the US is not tracking them with satellites or UAVs. The number of active "Key Hole" IMINT satellites is very limited. They have far more important things to observe (Russia, China, NK, Iran and other nuclear states) and I doubt that they would waste the very limited fuel, power and bandwidth to track pirates. Each billion-dollar satellite goes up with severely limited resources and hence lifespan. Uncle Sam does not get his money's worth expending them on pirates. Several satellites would also be needed to achieve adequate surveillance since the satellites are not geostationary, as mentioned already. A huge number of UAVs would be needed to observe the huge AO. Again, UAVs with the required range are in limited supply, and they have more important things to do. Global Hawks don't grow on trees, and are needed in Afghanistan urgently. This is not the movies. The godlike eye in the sky does not exist (or at least is ludicrously expensive and severely limited in time and space).

The pirates are definitely able to blend into the civilian population, like any other species of criminal. They are not professional soldiers in units with a chain of command. They are poor fishermen and unemployed youths who take to crime in desperation, underwritten by criminal syndicates and potentially terrorists. They run huge risks looking for the big score hoping for a better life. It makes no sense to speak of civilians "sheltering" pirates, since the pirates are the civilian population, albeit its criminal element. It makes no sense to speak of "fishermen" and "pirates" as two seperate groups, since there is so much traffic between the two. Do we carpet bomb neighborhoods because a few people there are robbers or even kidnappers? It is a tempting idea, but it is not how things are done anymore.

Most of the news stories I read contain direct quotes from pirates who don't appear to be hiding their names. From that, I'd assume that the media is there and hasn't had a hard time finding these people. They're not necessarily in camps away from civilians--these people are civilians. Criminals, but civilians. And it would appear that at least a portion of the population views these pirates as heros, bringing wealth into the community.

We rarely manage to do an easy-in, easy-out strike. I can't imagine that doing one here would change anything. These pirates are nothing more than angry young men, and we'll never kill all of the angry young men in Somali. I don't particularly want American boots on the ground for a long period of time, and I don't want us to engage in the long-term nation building require to "solve" the problem. The costs of that outweigh the costs of the piracy.

No, but we could make a decent stab at killing all the angry men in boats off the Somali coast…

Hire Somali fisherman to hunt Pirates...pay based on performance... every piracy event within "x" nautical miles diminishes the annual pay. Create a scheme where the most reliable hunters get promoted to leadership or coordinator roles....consider other jobs they could do while idle, which offset cost and generate true revenue

The US is most likely not providing constant surveillance as mentioned above. However, CJTF-Horn of Africa is located not too far away in Camp Lemonier, Djibouti. There are some surveillance assets there, but I would not trust everything in that Wiki link.

Once the pirates have been curtailed, do you expect that the men you've been paying to do your dirty work will become shop keepers and farmers? Or do you keep paying them to sit idle?

The Romans learned all of that the hard way.

How would you know the 'Pirates' they killed were actual pirates and not fishermen they'd killed to get the reward? For that matter how would you know the hunters were not themselves pirates?

Why go scalping armed pirates when there are unarmed civillians you can scalp and get paid for?

Maybe everybody should just employ a bunch of dolphins - you could pay them in fish...

Why don't they just shoot the dolphins?
Better yet, drop a few grenades in the water, and those dolphins that don't suffer instantly from uncontrollable bouyancy will scatter quick-smart...

Chris, I believe I answered your question in this snippet

"every piracy event within "x" nautical miles diminishes the annual pay"

I really don't care if the hunters were once pirates. The desired result is commerce resumes

Well, if your pay is based on eliminating piracy in your area, killing fisherman would result in no profit.

I guess you didn't catch the last sentence in the quote you referenced.... where I said "Create a scheme where the most reliable hunters get promoted to leadership or coordinator roles....consider other jobs they could do while idle, which offset cost and generate true revenue"


To my mind, that sorta hints at the fact that I am aware of the need for a continuous employment to avoid "idle hands".....

I think it's great that you've said that, and I think it's about as realistic as solving the problem with large amounts of chocolate. You don't solve a problem that stems from societal and governmental breakdown by creating new factions and warlords. If you could name an instance or two in history where that has worked out well, that'd be great. Rome would seem to be the ultimate example--over and over again--of it being a foolish idea.

I see it this way...

If the origin of the piracy is a failed state where young males cannot find a way to earn a living and control thier destiny through lawful means.....PERHAPS providing an example of an organized, lawful means of earning a living which also makes the unlawful acts more difficult and dangerous.... might have a chance of working....

But then, this is an open forum, you are entitled to hold whatever opinion you may wish.....even if it is simply critical, insular and wrong

No doubt about that last bit. I don't think you're at all familiar with the situation there if you think that what you propose would result in an organized, lawful means of earning a living. All you're suggesting is paying some of the pirates to kill other pirates. You can put different words around that to dress it up, but that's all it is. There's no shortage of strife there, and your idea just perpetuates the problem that has created the current solution.

If there were a neat, easy solution the problem would have been taken care of. Throwing money at it just doesn't work, so why even suggest it?

I have never dealt with Pirates and have no military, especially naval experience. I do have extensive experience with idle young men with limited financial opportunity, I'm an eternal optimist and believe in capitalism.

I may be daft, but I see a whole boat load of commonalty between the enduring successes I have had locally with troubled young men and the problem presented here. Cynicism is sooooo easy....I've been told things are impossible, difficult or ill-advised all my life....most of it has proven to be complete BS...

Someone should summon the ghost of Teddy Roosevelt at the Sorbonne right about now

So I take it you're paying off these local troubled young men? That's all you're suggesting that be done in Somali.

Tell us more.

No, I am advocating paying for results, it would likely be cheaper to pay in this way than it would be to pay for endless naval patrols, ransoms, increased insurance, etc... Have you stopped to consider what wage a "hunter" might require for motivated service under the given circumstance...it certainly would not be equal to what a western salary demand for similar service would be...

So, in essence, I am advocating the redirection of a fraction of funds already in place, with the remainder going unwasted.

Please pause and consider what I wrote with an open mind. You are consistantly mis-reading a single paragraph. For example, please feel free to quote the sentence where I said we should "pay off" vs "pay for results"....failing so, accept my challenge and put forth the effort to actually read what I wrote.

I've read what you wrote. All you want to do is pay someone else to do our dirty work, and then cross your fingers and hope that paying them to do other jobs in between "hunting" jobs keeps them docile. History says that doesn't work. What makes your idea different?

Who's dirty work is it?

History says paying people fairly to do a job and measuring outcomes doesn't work?

There are a number of valid models in history that suggest I am correct and you are not. I believe if you dug past the very superficial surface, you might find that the Roman example (foederati) you provided failed for a number of other reasons which would not be present off the coast of Somalia....

It's all well and good to pretend that you're suggesting that this will be capitalism and blah blah blah, but it's just another form of paying off the bad guys. As I've said before, you can't polish a turd. Your idea is a turd.

Now, can you find examples in history where paying mercenaries has lead to good, stable societies or can't you? And are you ready to write a check to get the ball rolling?

Don't worry. I understand how inexpensive talk is.

Mercenary or police officer, which is the better analog? I can find lots of examples where law enforcement has had a positive impact.

The point also remains that you have not presented any idea, will you simply continue to criticize, as if that alone contributes value? (wow, I sure hope this resonates as rhetoric, since you haven't answered any of my other questions....I wouldn't want you to miss this point)

With regard to writing checks.... I recently celebrated my 25th year of volunteer work, lately averaging perhaps 10-12 hours per week, but in my first decade, perhaps twice that.

52 weeks * 10 years * 20 hours = 10,400
52 weeks * 15 years * 10 hours = 7,800

assuming a very modest (non-management) salary rate associated with the type of civil service I volunteer for, that would put me at around $750,000 US.

That's awesome. I'm glad you felt like sharing.

You aren't advocating police work. You're advocating pitting warlords against warlords, which is no different than the chaos that has been Somali's recent history. You call paying for scalps police work? Interesting.

Then you're just paying the pirates to stop being pirates for now, they sit around, take the cheque from Uncle Sugar and when the cash dries up... Guess what?

Guess the other option is the completely turn the area into one no-go zone.

Why does the cash dry up? Stopping piracy is a recurring cost either way....

I am advocating hiring young men from the region to hunt criminals and stop them......that is what Police officers do.

If you took one second to think about what warlords do, and how that is completely incongruent to what I am advocating, you would stop saying it.

The problem is that in societies lacking both a working justice system and a cultural heritage that values the rule of law, police officers frequently end up just becoming criminals in uniforms.

In a society without prisons or an effective government to run them how would you propose that the pirates be 'stopped'?

Cutting off of hands perhaps? Beheading with a blunt knife?

(The horror, the horror - maybe that is what is needed: a new Kurtz [the Heart of Darkness version, not Apocalypse Now].)

(Edited for spelling under the influence of scotch)

Then you're paying tribute. Danegeld, protection money - whatever you want to call it.

The people who will collect the money will be those who would otherwise be pirates. If you stop paying, or they decide you aren't paying enough, they will resume their piracy. In the meantime, they will use your money to arm themselves, & secure their position locally, to the detriment of any chance of establishing a peaceful government.

First, you need some sort of government with some sort of claim to legitimacy (not necessarily a very good one). Then, you can help this government try to set up a working police force, coastguard, etc. Both may recruit from the same pool as pirates, but that is not the same as paying off the bad guys, which is what you will do if you dive straight in.

OK, thank you for a constructive post

It sounds like there is some sort of government with some sort of claim to legitimacy (not necessarily a very good one) in place...

Then, you can help this government try to set up a working police force, coastguard, etc. Both may recruit from the same pool as pirates, but that is not the same as paying off the bad guys, which is what you will do if you dive straight in. (how is this different from what I have proposed?)

It would be very convenient for them to be shot, but if they do surrender, I guess there would need to be some simple judicial process and internment solution. I cede that this is a challenge that must be met, which will increase cost. Mind you, I am not as keen on the business of nation building or justice for all at the expense of the west....I am advocating a minimal solution focused on stopping piracy. If it acts as the example this foundering nation needs to begin the process of re-organizing, that's great...but not the primary intent

Of course you're advocating nation building--you just keep changing your tune. When someone says you'll be paying criminals to sit idle, you say you're building a police force. When someone says your idea lacks the necessary infrastructure, you say it would have to be built.

I don't think you know what you're proposing.

My statement "I am not as keen on the business of nation building or justice for all at the expense of the west....I am advocating a minimal solution focused on stopping piracy."


your response



When a discussion reaches the point where the 'critic' is telling the "target" what the "target" thinks, we've ventured so far outside the domain of reality that the dialog becomes pointless.... perhaps you would like to continue this argument with yourself. I wish you the best and hope for your sake that the society which has nurtured your unique self continues to provide the protections you obviously depend upon for existence.